Will a Wave of “Trump Regret” Lift Democratic Boats This Fall?

7 hours ago 6

I confess to some smug satisfaction when a disciple of Donald Trump turns heretic—especially after some very public humiliation or as just desserts.

Take, for instance, the recent case of the right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos. Once an avid and vociferous supporter of President Trump—and of Trump’s anti-immigrant policies in particular—Yiannopoulos was himself detained and deported by ICE for allegedly overstaying his visa. He now says he’s “ashamed” of his support for Trump. Yiannopoulos joins a long line of prominent defectors, including talk show demagogue Tucker Carlson, former ultra-MAGA Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie, etc.

These instances of apostasy have appeal for Trump opponents because they hint of a broader revolt among the MAGA rank and file. Few things are more maddening than the seemingly immovability of Trump’s base, even as Trump’s lawlessness grows more brazen and his behavior increasingly erratic (see, e.g., his unhinged string of “Truths” last weekend).

As a new survey by Navigator Research reveals, “Trump regret” is real, and it’s propelled by disillusionment over the president’s failure to lower prices and avoid new wars, as promised during his campaign. But as this research also shows, this regret also has its limits. Democrats shouldn’t assume these Trump “regretters” will be leaping on the Democratic bandwagon. Many likely won’t.

For this week’s interview (which you watch on our Substack here), I spoke with Navigator’s Director of Polling and Analytics, Tina Tang. Her research paints a nuanced portrait of Trump regretters and offers more than few surprises and cautions for Democrats seeking to reach this group.

Let’s start with the good news:

The MAGA base is shrinking, and the Trump coalition is fracturing.

Eighteen percent of 2024 Trump voters now regrets their vote, including nearly 1 in 10 MAGA Republicans. Trump is failing to hold the voters that swung toward him in 2024—younger voters, independents, and voters of color.

One particularly interesting tidbit is that 22 percent of moms who voted for Trump now regret their vote—an indicator that the vaunted “MAGA-MAHA” alliance was also fleeting.

Trump regretters are angry about inflation and the war in Iran—which means Democrats‘ focus on “affordability” is on target.

Overwhelmingly, the survey found, Trump regretters feel that the president has broken his promises to bring down prices and keep the country out of wars. Tang says the word that kept recurring in her focus groups of these voters was “duped.” One voter, she said, told her that “they voted for no new wars and now Trump is starting wars both abroad and in America.”

Compared to voters overall, Navigator’s survey found that Trump regretters are especially sour on Trump’s performance on the economy and deeply pessimistic about their own finances. For instance, 77 percent of Trump regretters disapprove of Trump’s job on the economy, compared to 63 percent overall. Sixty-nine percent are “uneasy” about their personal financial situation, again compared to 63 percent overall.

Now here are the cautions:

Trump regretters are less concerned about ICE and other issues animating Democrats.

While many Democrats have focused on concerns like the cruelty and lawlessness of the administration’s immigration policies, Trump’s unconstitutional interference with elections, and threats to women’s reproductive health or the climate, these issues aren’t primary motivators for regretters, compared to the economy. In fact, Trump regretters are more likely to approve of Trump’s handling of immigration than voters overall (43 percent versus 41 percent).

When asked about the most important issues they believed Congress should tackle, topics like “democracy” were at the bottom of the list for Trump regretters. Just 8 percent of these voters put “democracy” among their top five concerns for Congress, 5 percent named election integrity, and only 12 percent said climate change.

Trump regretters don’t trust Democrats either.

As other surveys have found, rejecting Trump is not the same as embracing Dems. Many Trump regretters are now politically homeless, with deep distrust of both parties on many key issues, including the economy.

For instance, just 25 percent of Trump regretters trust Democrats as the party better equipped to handle inflation and the cost of living. That’s better than the 18 percent level of trust accruing to Republicans, but that also leaves a whopping 54 percent who said they don’t trust either party to bring down prices. Corruption is an issue with an even bigger trust gap, even as Democrats have begun to raise it as a potentially potent issue this fall. While 72 percent of Trump regretters do see Donald Trump as “bringing more corruption to Washington,” 65 percent don’t trust either party to clean things up. This means that even as Democrats throw stones at the GOP’s kleptocratic governance, Trump regretters mostly see the shattering of a giant glass house.

The overall story, however, is a positive one for Democrats: A significant number of Trump voters are up for grabs. While their numbers are relatively small, elections have been close enough that their behavior can make the difference in key races and battleground states. The question now is whether Democrats can deliver a message and agenda that rekindles faith in a group that believes its trust has been shattered.

Politics Editor Bill Scher argues all signs are pointing toward a Big Blue Wave this fall, despite Republicans’ mighty efforts to tilt the field in their favor and the dearth of quality polling. For one thing, it doesn’t hurt that Trump continues to commit unforced errors, like the midterm “Trumpalooza” this week that accomplished little but to “give free footage to Democratic admakers,” as Bill writes. Read his race-by-race analysis here.

Don’t miss at the Monthly…

Beware media misreporting on the fight over mail-in ballots. Some media outlets have been reporting—wrongly—that the Trump administration has won the battle to restrict mail-in voting this fall. In truth, the fight is ongoing, and Trump is likely to lose, writes voting rights expert Josh Douglas. Yet misperceptions fed by the media may serve to suppress the vote and add to voter confusion, Josh warns. “Sensationalist headlines that fail to convey nuance can harm the public’s understanding of our democratic processes and ultimately undermine faith in our elections,” he writes. Read here.

Say his name. When Charles Adair died in a Kansas City jail, the national media treated his death as that “of another Black man held down until he stopped breathing,” writes journalist Melinda Henneberger. But Adair’s death is much more than that, she writes, because it reflects the further tragedy of a criminal justice system ill-equipped to handle serious mental illness. Though Adair showed obvious signs of schizophrenia, “deputies at every turn treated Adair like he was being a recalcitrant jerk instead of someone experiencing a mental health crisis,” Melinda writes. The absence of reform will mean more victims like Adair. Read here.

The lost journalistic world of 9/11. What brought Americans together on September 11, now a quarter century ago, was the shared experience of bearing witness to this tragedy. Those of us who were there to remember all saw the same footage, watched the same speeches, and read many of the same articles. Common understanding built common purpose and national unity. Now imagine if the horrific events of 9/11 were to happen in today’s media environment. Imagine social media feeds clogged with misinformation, conspiracy theories, fragments of video, and a deluge of hateful commentary. In this vintage piece—written five years ago but no less relevant today—Executive Editor Digital Matt Cooper recalls his experience covering 9/11 as a top editor in the Washington bureau of TIME and mourns the loss of the journalistic enterprise that made our collective experience of that day possible. Read here.

Plus…

UnHerd columnist Ryan Zickgraf reviews gonzo journalist Jon Ronson’s latest book, which explores the outer rings of the manosphere. Among the stops in Ronson’s tour: a castle in Connecticut owned by an erstwhile reality-show prince intent on building a real-life harem. Christian Caryl reviews Peter Bergen’s new book on the mistakes that led up to the tragedy of 9/11, the lessons we’ve failed to learn since then, and the danger these continuing missteps present to our future. “One can only imagine how long we, and the rest of the world, will end up paying for Trump’s and Hegseth’s blunders in the Middle East,” he writes. Jonathan Alter also offers his remembrances of 9/11.

Coda…

In potentially another bad sign for the president, it appears the appetite for Trump-related merch might be diminishing. (What, no interest in an $85 Trump hoodie or a $180 pickleball paddle emblazoned with a “Trump crest”?)

The Wall Street Journal reports that at TrumpTownUSA, reputedly the nation’s largest freestanding store dedicated to all things Trump, daily sales have fallen from a peak of $15,000 in 2024 to $1,500. Donald Taylor, the store’s 76-year-old owner, told the Journal that he attributes the slump “to customers’ struggles with higher gas prices due to the Iran war and persistent inflation.” The Journal further reports that other Trump-focused stores have closed for good.

And the official online Trump Store might not be doing that much better. A July 1 post on X hawking a 25 percent off discount on America 250 gear got just 26 likes, four reposts, and five extremely hostile comments. (There have also been no new posts since July 4.)

As always, thanks for reading. And please forward this newsletter to anyone you think might be interested. We at the Monthly count on readers like you to help build our community and spread the word.

Have a great week!

Anne Kim, Senior Editor

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