The Stock Market Tanked This Week; Is This Time Different?

Every time a bull market enters a correction period or, even worse, becomes a bear market and white coat investors lose tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars in a short amount of time, the question inevitably appears:

“Is this time different?”

We know that the stock market has always gone up and to the right over time.

If you need proof, here's a good illustration of how time in the market has always worked to your advantage.

If you stay in the market long enough, history tells us that we WILL make money even though we'll probably also have to go through some deep dives. That’s why Dr. Jim Dahle is always preaching about staying the course, why other investors speak about buying the dip, why WCI columnist Rikki Racela writes about his lust for buying stocks on sale, and why Warren Buffett proclaims that you should be greedy when other people are fearful. A down market is a ripe market to make money.

All of that is good advice. But when the dot.com bubble burst or the Great Recession began or when the Coronabear era made investors’ lives extra difficult, the question always came: Is this time different?

The last 12 days have been chaotic. After President Trump raised tariffs across the globe during his so-called Liberation Day on April 2, the markets have mostly plunged into a downward spiral. In the two days following Trump’s announcement, the market suffered its biggest two-day decline in the past 70 years, and more than $6 trillion was almost instantly erased. While there was a bit of relief a few days ago (when most tariffs were paused for 90 days) and the market had one of its biggest one-day jumps in history, the rest of the week mostly brought more pain. On April 1, the Dow Jones stood at 40,225; at the end of April 11, it was at 40,212.

If you’ve recently looked at your 401(k) or your taxable brokerage account, you probably felt a wave of nausea. Across internet forums and comment sections, the same question is bubbling to the surface once again: Is this time different?

The best answer I can give is sort of but probably not. Now, in an effort to help squash feelings of panic-selling and to step out of whatever political bubbles are telling us that this market downturn is a stroke of genius or a stroke of madness, let’s turn to the financial experts we trust to see what they’ve said recently about what to do—and about whether this time is somehow unique in history.

Is This Time Different?

Here’s what Suze Orman wrote on Facebook on April 4:

“I know many of you are afraid of what's happening in the economy and the stock market. So here's my take: We are looking at another down day for the markets today. Why? Well, China has retaliated, and that's got investors on edge. The markets are projected to go lower as a result.

Now, I know many of you are dollar-cost averaging—and that’s still OK—but please hear me on this: if you're going to continue that strategy right now, do it with seriously tiny amounts. This is not the time to be aggressive.

We're seeing signs that feel a lot like 2022. Volatile. Emotional. Uncertain. And yet . . . I want you to breathe. Markets will eventually recover. But not all at once. If these tariffs stay in place, it will take time. So remember: money you have in the market should have been money you did not need for at least five years. Let this play out.

If you are contributing to a retirement account, do not stop. Stay the course. Keep investing steadily. That consistency is your power.”

Here’s what Mike Piper wrote on The Oblivious Investor on April 7:

“If you’re thinking, ‘This time is different!’ yes, you’re right. This time is always different. That’s the key thing to understand.

In early 2020, we saw an extremely quick decline, coupled with a pandemic. That was certainly a new and scary experience. In 2008-2009, we saw a quick and large decline, coupled with major financial institutions collapsing and a non-trivial possibility of the whole thing becoming system-wide if too many large institutions failed. That was a new and scary experience. In 2000-2002, we saw a large decline that just kept on going and was coupled with things like major accounting fraud scandals. Could we trust that the market wasn’t just a scam, rigged against the little guy? It was a new and scary experience.

That’s how these things go. A significant market decline doesn’t happen out of thin air. Such declines are generally accompanied by some scary real-world event.

If you’re going to invest in the stock market, you have to be prepared to see large declines from time to time, coupled with something scary going on.”

Here’s what Warren Buffett wrote in February in his annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders’ letter. He’s obviously not addressing what’s happened this month, but it’s still instructive. Remember, Buffett raised eyebrows at the end of 2024 by amassing $334 billion in cash—observers opined at the time that he was worried about the Trump presidency and wanted a safety net or that he wanted all that cash so he could dump more of it into the market when the downturn came.

“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote to his shareholders. “That preference won’t change.”

This is what JL Collins wrote in November 2024, soon after Trump was elected to his second term. Kudos to him for invoking a little Greek mythology in his analysis.

“. . . To me, it feels like we could see a significant bear market sometime down the road. Love him or loathe him, Mr. Trump is a disruptive force and Mr. Market hates disruption. Plus, one is due. We are at the pinnacle of a massive 15.5-year bull market and such runs don’t last forever.

So, time to move to cash?

Not for me. My discipline remains the same. No one can predict Mr. Market, least of all me. I will remain fully invested.

Should my bearish speculation prove correct, I will have tied myself to the mast and will stay invested, and investing, as it rages and passes.

Should the Mr. Market continue this historic bull run, I’ll be right there with it.

This is The Simple Path to Wealth.”

Ramit Sethi wrote the following in his email newsletter on April 8:

“I’m not selling. This is the moment when even disciplined investors screw up. I’ve been seeing it all over Reddit and Twitter. People who’ve been screaming ‘buy and hold' for years suddenly panic and sell everything after a few bad days. It might feel logical in the moment, but it’s almost always a devastating long-term decision.

If you’re investing for the long term—and you should be—then you don’t need to panic. I’m not selling a thing. My portfolio is built for the long game, so I’m not touching it for another 10, 20, 30 years.”

As for what Jim Dahle thought during the Coronabear drop, here’s what he had to say in 2020:

“I've come to discover that it really doesn't matter what I write in advance. I've been writing about bear markets; about behavioral finances; about why you need a financial plan and how to write one; about the importance of staying the course; about why it is smart not to try to time the market, pick individual stocks, or use actively managed mutual funds; about how to keep finances in their proper place in your life; and how to earn, save, invest, spend, and give well.

But one big market downturn and it's like it's a brand new blog that nobody has ever read before. The WCI Forum is somehow now full of market timers. The WCI Facebook Group is somehow now full of stock pickers. The Bogleheads forum is convinced that this time it's different . . . Guess what, guys? I'm still here. The message is still the same:

Earn as much as you can while maintaining balance in your life Save at least 20% of your gross earnings for retirement Invest it into a fixed asset allocation, diversified between stocks, bonds, +/- real estate Keep your costs low Don't try to time the market Use low-cost, broadly diversified index funds Use tax-protected, asset-protected investing accounts as much as possible Develop and follow a written investing plan Keep a long-term perspective Get good advice at a fair price Rebalance, tax-loss harvest, and donate appreciated shares to charity in lieu of cash.”

So, is this time different? Yes, each market drop is always different. Maybe the question should be: should you do anything different? The answer, at this point, is still no. Lash yourself to the mast and plug your ears with beeswax so you don’t hear the Sirens’ call to panic-sell. And hopefully, we'll all be alright eventually.

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Money Song of the Week

The vast majority of people in the US aren’t going to feel sorry for a millionaire who isn’t happy. But perhaps the readers of this site can spare a little sympathy for a wealthy person who feels sad. So, when WCI columnist Adam Safdi suggested I listen to Kacey Musgraves’ 2024 song Lonely Millionaire for Money Song of the Week, I was all about it.

As Musgraves suggests, millionaires want to be loved and fulfilled. They don’t want to be stuck by themselves on their private jets and gold watches.

As she sings,

“Who wants to be a lonely millionaire?/Comin' home, ain't no one there/That you can talk to in your king-size bed.

Be careful what you wish for, I see it all the time/The money and the diamonds and the things that shine/Can't buy you true happiness.”

The subject matter of how money can’t buy you love and happiness is a constant trope in music. But that’s not what interested me when I started playing this song.

What really struck me about this song was that Musgraves didn’t perform like a country singer who used to croon about space cowboys and Mama’s broken heart. Instead, she reminded me of Sade at her most powerful who also samples beats from rapper JID and employs a powerful acoustic guitar. Maybe this type of music isn’t unusual for Musgraves (I’ve barely ever listened to her before, so I don’t have any kind of gauge on her, though she has said she makes country music for those who like country music and also those who don’t).

But I do know that the song surprised me in a good way.

“If you look at the records I’ve made since Day 1, they’ve always been a huge patchwork quilt of so many different influences,” Musgraves told Vogue. “I don’t think I can even really say 100% what my own music is.”

Asked specifically about Lonely Millionaire, she said, “There were definitely some examples that I’ve seen of that in the industry. But I saw a quote the other day that said something like, ‘The ultimate wealth is being in tune with the flow of nature.' The ultimate wealth is already in you, you know what I mean? It’s not an outside thing.”

Alas, this song is much deeper than I originally believed. Maybe I should listen to the rest of that Deeper Well album, because man, Musgraves certainly sounds like a smooth operator when she's singing.

More information here:

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Reddit of the Week

For many readers, I imagine 1998 doesn’t seem all that long ago. But then you take a look at this grocery store receipt from 27 years ago, and it seems as though you’re looking at something from an entirely different world.

Receipt from 1998
byu/SmokinStrange91 inHEB

As for how grocery prices today compare to inflation gains from 1998 until now, you can look in the comments of that Reddit thread. You can see that recreating the list today costs about $91. But that $30.82 from 1998 is worth $60.82 in 2025 dollars. Which means we're paying more for groceries today than we did back then.

How worried are you about the latest stock market results? Are you staying the course? Do you think this time will be different?

[EDITOR'S NOTE: For comments, complaints, suggestions, or plaudits, email Josh Katzowitz at [email protected].]

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