The same Polymarket trader who predicted the start of the Iran war is now betting on a cease-fire by next week

On Monday morning, President DonaldTrump posted on Truth Social saying the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” about resolving the war in the Middle East. However, before Trump revealed this information publicly, a few accounts on the prediction-market platform Polymarket were making big bets that the war would end as soon as this week. A group of 10 recently opened accounts had bet thousands of dollars on Polymarket’s “US x Iran cease-fire” market, betting that a cease-fire would happen by March 31 or April 15. Together, these accounts had bet around $160,000 on the cease-fire, and stand...