The Democrats’ Looming 2032 Cliff

The Democratic Party’s short-term prospects look great. The party’s long-term prospects look dismal. First, the party’s auspicious present: Democrats are favored to win the House and have a shot at taking control of the Senate in the midterm elections later this year. In 2028, the steady collapse of support for President Trump has increased the likelihood of a Democratic presidential win. But in 2030, the Democrats’ glory days turn ugly as the party’s fortunes face the threat of a downward spiral. First, if the Democrats do win back the White House and the historical pattern holds, voters will turn against...