If you were in the UK for the back-to-back record-breaking heatwaves of 2026, you probably don’t need me to tell you that parts of England and Wales faced drought as wildfire risk rose and river levels fell.
But you might not know that many of these areas are still in drought, despite flash floods and the first frost of the season.
Here, HuffPost UK spoke to Lucy Barker, Senior Hydrologist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and lead of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme, about what that means and how it might affect us even in winter.
Why are parts of the UK still in drought?
There are no official drought criteria in the UK. But Barker told us that “all droughts begin with deficits in precipitation (rain, snow, sleet, etc.) compared to
what would normally be expected for the location and the time of year”.
This is called “meteorological drought”.
In England and Wales, “almost every month since March 2026 has seen below average rainfall, with as little as 43% of the average in April and just 10% of the average in July,” the expert said.
Only June recorded above-average rainfall in these areas.
The knock-on effects of meteorological drought eventually lead to “hydrological drought”, which is when rivers run low, and “agricultural drought which often occurs in combination with high temperatures, like we saw this summer”. Soil can lose moisture, and the sun evaporates some of our river reserves.
As the land dries up and rainfall stays low, demand on water rises, straining already-depleted supplies. It can take a long time to recover from this sequence of events, Barker added.
How long could drought last in England and Wales?
“In the latest UK Hydrological Outlook... which forecasts river flows and groundwater levels for the next one to three months, we expect below normal river flows and groundwater levels to persist in southern and eastern areas of the UK – the areas that received the least rainfall over spring and summer 2026,” Barker explained.
Drought is only over once reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater get back to their normal levels. And while recent rain might have helped to bring some moisture back into the soil, it could take longer for it to refill our groundwater levels and rivers.
Therefore, the hydrologist said: “Recovery from drought can take months, and if this winter is dry, some parts of southern England may still be in drought at the end of the winter”.
Research from the Environment Agency suggests that England would need to see 120% of its typical rainfall over the next seven months for all areas to
be considered out of drought.
How might drought affect us in winter?
The UK saw hosepipe bans in the summer, as well as changes in harvests and even energy use surges.
But Barker said droughts don’t just affect us in the warmer months.
Not only do temporary usage bans (TUBs) persist in many areas, but “Prolonged dry conditions can lead to low river flows, depleted reservoir and groundwater levels, increasing pressure on public water supplies, agriculture and the natural environment”.
In fact, she added, drought can be “particularly concerning during autumn and winter – especially if starting from a below-normal position as we have done in 2026”.
That’s because these are the months we usually rely on to refill diminished water supplies.
Therefore, she ended, “If rainfall remains below average, there is less opportunity to replenish and refill soils, rivers, reservoirs and groundwater stores ahead of the coming spring and summer.
“This can leave water resources and ecosystems vulnerable and increase the risk of drought impacts continuing or worsening in the year ahead”.
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