NBC News, based on AP data, projects Pete Ricketts as the winner of the Nebraska Senate race against Dan Osborn. At 09:56 CET the count stood at 50.2 to 43.8 percent with 87.0 percent counted. Before this race, an independent last won a Senate race in Nebraska in 1936, and Republicans last lost one in 2006. Dan Osborn, a former union president, runs as an independent, and he has no Democratic opponent: the Nebraska Democratic Party backs him, and its nominee, Cindy Burbank, withdrew in July. Republican Senator Pete Ricketts seeks his first full term after being appointed in 2023 and winning the shortened term in 2024. In the table and charts below, D+ stands for a lead for Osborn in 2026 and for Kamala Harris in the 2024 comparison.
Nebraska Senate race: the key facts
Status (09:56 CET): Ricketts 358,017 votes (50.2 percent), Osborn 312,707 (43.8 percent), 87.0 percent counted.Governor: NBC News projects Jim Pillen as the winner over Lynne Walz, 50.5 to 42.5 percent with 87 percent counted.2024: Donald Trump won Nebraska in 2024 with 564,816 votes to 369,995 for Kamala Harris, a margin of 20.5 points.Crypto money: $13,476,276 spent against Osborn in the general election by Defend American Jobs, according to Tech Influence Watch.Prediction market: the race is called; see Polymarket for the settled market.Nebraska election results: read the count with care
We estimate about 99,000 votes are still out, most of them in Douglas, Lancaster, Sarpy. With the race called, the remaining votes only change the final margin.
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
Nebraska 2024 vs 2026: where the counties moved
Douglas County, home to Omaha, went from D+10.1 in the 2024 presidential race to D+20.7 now, with 87 percent counted. Lancaster County, home to Lincoln, went from D+4.3 in the 2024 presidential race to D+21.3 now, with 79 percent counted. Sarpy County, in the Omaha suburbs, went from R+11.6 in the 2024 presidential race to D+4.4 now, with 85 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 15.3 points toward Osborn on average. These figures compare a partial Senate count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change. The 2026 figure measures Osborn's lead or deficit against Ricketts, the 2024 figure measures Harris against Trump, so the table shows how far the same counties moved between an independent's campaign and a Democratic presidential one.
| Douglas | D+10.1 | D+20.7 | 87 % |
| Lancaster | D+4.3 | D+21.3 | 79 % |
| Sarpy | R+11.6 | D+4.4 | 85 % |
| Buffalo | R+44.7 | R+28.8 | 95 % |
| Hall | R+37.6 | R+19.9 | 95 % |
| Dodge | R+32.5 | R+15.5 | 91 % |
| Lincoln | R+55.0 | R+40.3 | 91 % |
| Madison | R+55.8 | R+41.2 | 95 % |
Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 results via NBC NewsWho are Dan Osborn and Pete Ricketts?
Osborn is the former president of a union local and ran as an independent against Republican Deb Fischer in 2024, losing by fewer than seven points. His platform this year includes a ban on corporate PAC donations and a stock-trading ban for members of Congress, and he is a critic of AI data centers. Ricketts, who supports building them, won the Republican nomination in May with 81.5 percent. Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank withdrew in July, so no Democrat is on the ballot. Three other candidates are: Chuck Conboy of the America First Party, Robin Richards of the Nebraska Working People Party and Mike Marvin of Legal Marijuana NOW, who has withdrawn and endorsed Osborn but remains on the ballot.
Nebraska governor's race: Jim Pillen vs Lynne Walz
Republican Jim Pillen seeks a second term as governor. Lynne Walz, a Democrat and former state senator, challenges him, and Democrats had last won the governor's office in Nebraska in 1994 before this race. Brett Lindstrom of the America First Party and Rick Beard of Legal Marijuana NOW are on the ballot as well.
Nebraska and crypto: $13.5 million against Osborn
Compared with Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, Nebraska is where the crypto and AI committees spent by far the most. Tech Influence Watch, the tracker formerly known as Follow the Crypto, lists $14.4 million of committee spending in Nebraska, against $508,000 in Alaska, $972,000 in Iowa and $81,000 in Kansas. In the Senate race, Defend American Jobs, the crypto committee in the Fairshake network, spent $13,476,276 against Osborn in the general election. In the Republican primary, Fellowship PAC, another crypto committee, and Defending Our Values, an AI committee, spent $612,625 for Ricketts. Andreessen Horowitz, Donald Wilson, Google and 11 other companies or their executives added $186,500 in direct support for Ricketts.
The advocacy group Stand With Crypto scores Ricketts 100 and Osborn 75. The seat counts for the next attempt at a market structure law: the Senate did not take up the CLARITY Act on 15 September, as the vote to begin debate failed 49 to 50, with no Democrat voting yes, and it needed 60 votes. Whoever holds the Nebraska seat in January votes on the next attempt. Where the bill stands is in our CLARITY Act explainer.
What Nebraska means for the Senate
Republicans went into the night with 53 seats, so Democrats needed a net gain of four for the majority, and Ricketts' seat was one of the Republican 53. NBC News projects Democrats to control the Senate, with 54 seats for Democrats and 44 for Republicans at 09:56 CET. With the majority decided, the races still open decide the size of the margin, not who controls the chamber. All calls and the full Senate table are in our midterm results live ticker. More from the states: the Iowa Senate race, Kansas and crypto's $50 million bet against Sherrod Brown.
What Polymarket says about Nebraska
With the race called, the prediction market has little left to price. The open question for traders is the balance of power in Washington. The market has one outcome for the independent candidate, Osborn, and calls it "Independent". If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
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