NBC News, based on AP data, projects Adam Hamilton as the winner of the Kansas Senate race against Roger Marshall. At 09:56 CET the count stood at 50.9 to 46.1 percent with 95.5 percent counted. It is the first Democratic Senate win in Kansas since 1932. Adam Hamilton, a Democratic pastor, ran against Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who won the seat in 2020. Kansas also elected a governor because Democrat Laura Kelly is term-limited. It is one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in a state Trump won in 2024, and the only one of them where Trump's margin was in double digits.
Kansas Senate race: the key facts
Status (09:56 CET): Hamilton 556,414 votes (50.9 percent), Marshall 503,230 (46.1 percent), 95.5 percent counted.Governor: Cindy Holscher leads Ty Masterson 50.3 to 49.7 percent with 95 percent counted.2024: Donald Trump won Kansas in 2024 with 758,802 votes to 544,853 for Kamala Harris, a margin of 16.1 points.Crypto and AI money: $80,832 from an AI committee for Marshall, plus $51,000 in direct contributions, according to Tech Influence Watch.Prediction market: the race is called; see Polymarket for the settled market.Kansas election results: read the count with care
We estimate about 10,000 votes are still out, most of them in Douglas. With the race called, the remaining votes only change the final margin.
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
Kansas 2024 vs 2026: where the counties moved
Johnson County, in the Kansas City suburbs, went from D+8.5 in the 2024 presidential race to D+28.0 now, with 95 percent counted. Sedgwick County, home to Wichita, went from R+13.8 in the 2024 presidential race to D+7.5 now, with 95 percent counted. Wyandotte County, home to Kansas City, Kansas, went from D+23.9 in the 2024 presidential race to D+48.7 now, with 96 percent counted. Shawnee County, home to Topeka, went from D+0.5 in the 2024 presidential race to D+18.2 now, with 95 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 20.4 points toward Democrats on average. These figures compare a partial Senate count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change. Trump voters who stayed home and Republicans who split their ticket look the same in this table.
| Johnson | D+8.5 | D+28.0 | 95 % |
| Sedgwick | R+13.8 | D+7.5 | 95 % |
| Shawnee | D+0.5 | D+18.2 | 95 % |
| Douglas | D+38.0 | D+54.7 | 83 % |
| Wyandotte | D+23.9 | D+48.7 | 96 % |
| Leavenworth | R+22.8 | R+0.9 | 95 % |
| Butler | R+41.2 | R+23.6 | 95 % |
| Reno | R+34.5 | R+16.0 | 97 % |
Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 results via NBC NewsWho are Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall?
Hamilton is the founder and senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection. In the August primary he won the Democratic nomination with about 35 percent in a large field, according to Wikipedia's race summary. Marshall, a Republican, won his Senate seat in 2020 with 53.2 percent and took this year's Republican nomination with about 80 percent. David Graham is on the ballot for the Libertarian Party.
Kansas governor's race: Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson
Cindy Holscher, a Democratic state senator, runs against Ty Masterson, a Republican who is president of the Kansas Senate. Kansas has a long tradition of ticket-splitting in governor's races: it votes Republican for president, yet Democrats have won the governor's office in most years since the late 1960s.
Kansas and crypto: the money behind Marshall
The money in this race ran one way. Tech Influence Watch, the tracker formerly known as Follow the Crypto, lists $80,832 from the AI committee Alliance for a Better Future in support of Marshall in the general election, plus $51,000 in direct support from Winklevoss Capital Management, Distributed Capital Partners, Microsoft and three other companies or their executives. The tracker's Senate entry for Kansas lists support for Marshall only.
The advocacy group Stand With Crypto scores Marshall 99 and shows no rating for Hamilton. The seat counts for the next attempt at a market structure law: the Senate did not take up the CLARITY Act on 15 September, as the vote to begin debate failed 49 to 50, with no Democrat voting yes, and it needed 60 votes. Whoever holds the Kansas seat in January votes on the next attempt. Where the bill stands is in our CLARITY Act explainer.
What Kansas means for the Senate
Republicans went into the night with 53 seats, so Democrats needed a net gain of four for the majority, and Marshall's seat was one of the Republican 53. NBC News projects Democrats to control the Senate, with 54 seats for Democrats and 44 for Republicans at 09:56 CET. With the majority decided, the races still open decide the size of the margin, not who controls the chamber. All calls and the full Senate table are in our midterm results live ticker. More from the states: the Iowa Senate race, Nebraska and the $13.5 million against Dan Osborn and Texas and the Bitcoin reserve.
What Polymarket says about Kansas
With the race called, the prediction market has little left to price. The open question for traders is the balance of power in Washington. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
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