How to Lose a Thermonuclear War

In 2019, Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security simulated a potential nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. In one series of escalatory exchanges, the United States expended between 930 and 1,080 nuclear warheads.1 These simulated figures represent 65–76 percent of U.S. strategic warheads deployed on missiles and bombers as of March 2023.2 With limited remaining warheads and a degraded NC3 network, could the United States effectively deter China in the aftermath?In a 2024 report to Congress, DoD updated its estimate of China’s stockpile of nuclear weapons to more than 600 operational warheads.4 If this trajectory continues,...