From the very beginning of this year, multiple weather experts have predicted a so-called “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño on the horizon.
It’s expected to raise the risk of droughts, floods, and extreme heat across the globe, which could mean a wetter, stormier autumn and colder, drier winter in the UK.
But when will its effects be strongest, and when might they die away? The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which is a United Nations weather body, has just offered some insight.
When will the 2026 El Niño peak?
An El Niño occurs when the surface of the Pacific Ocean heats up by 0.5°C or more above its usual temperature.
Speaking to HuffPost UK previously, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at UCL, Prof Bill McGuire, said that a “super” El Niño takes place when these temperatures rise by 1.5-2°C.
The WMO said that from October to December of 2026, temperatures are expected to rise by 3.7°C above normal, “peaking around December”.
This follows our planet’s hottest August on record.
The WMO’s Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, said: “El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface – which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured (as with 2024).
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release.”
The WMO added that the projected temperature rise on the Pacific surface is the highest since records began and noted it’s stronger than the previous record-breaker (+2.6°C in the 2015 El Niño).
How long will the 2026 El Niño last?
Saulo said her organisation’s forecasts “indicate a near-100% likelihood” that the El Niño will “persist through February 2027”.
El Niños typically last for around nine months to a year, though the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) said they can sometimes keep going for longer.
The UK’s Government Office for Science has said that “although the El Niño event is expected to end in spring 2027, its impacts may continue for several more months” after.
This could include a greater risk of disease transmission, changes to global and domestic food supplies, and greater pressure on fuel supplies.
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