NBC News, based on AP data, projects Byron Donalds as the winner of the Florida governor race against David Jolly. At 04:01 CET the gap stood at 118,025 votes, 50.1 to 48.6 percent, with 99.0 percent counted. Two years ago, Donald Trump carried Florida by 13.1 points, and in 2022 Ron DeSantis won the governor's office by 19.4. A race this tight in Trump's home state is, in our reading, one of the clearest signals of the 2026 midterms so far, and Florida now gets a governor who wants a state Bitcoin reserve.
Florida governor race: the key facts
Status (04:01 CET): Donalds 4,106,843 votes (50.1 percent), Jolly 3,988,818 (48.6 percent), 118,025 votes apart.Votes still out: AP's 99.0 percent implies about 83,000 votes still to count statewide.Recount line: 0.5 percent triggers a machine recount, about 40,996 votes at the current count.Senate seat: NBC News projects Ashley Moody as the winner against Angie Nixon, 50.9 to 47.9 percent with 99.0 percent counted.Prediction market: Donalds 100.0 percent, Jolly 0.1 percent on Polymarket (04:01 CET).Florida election results: where the last votes are
The order of the count explains why the lead has moved. Florida reports mail ballots and early voting first. Mail ballots ran 59 to 40 percent for Jolly, early in-person voting ran 50 to 49 for Jolly, and the Election Day ballots that follow ran 58 to 40 for Donalds. The western Panhandle, on Central Time, closed its polls an hour after the rest of the state, at 02:00 CET, so its Republican counties report late.
NBC News has projected the winner, and the table shows the counties still reporting.
| Miami-Dade | 95 % | D+7.0 | about 40,900 |
| Broward | 95 % | D+32.1 | about 34,500 |
| Palm Beach | 95 % | D+12.3 | about 29,700 |
| Hillsborough | 95 % | D+11.6 | about 27,100 |
| Orange | 95 % | D+29.4 | about 24,500 |
| Pinellas | 95 % | D+4.4 | about 21,100 |
| Brevard | 95 % | R+11.6 | about 13,900 |
| Polk | 95 % | R+5.5 | about 13,200 |
| Pasco | 95 % | R+12.3 | about 12,500 |
Source: AP via NBC News, own estimateFlorida 2024 vs 2026: how far the state has moved
In 2024, Trump won Florida with 6,110,125 votes to 4,683,038 for Kamala Harris. The gap between the two major candidates now sits about 11.6 points closer to Democrats. 12 of the 12 largest counties that have nearly finished counting moved in that direction.
Source: AP via NBC News, Florida Division of Elections
| Miami-Dade | R+11.4 | D+7.0 | 777,743 |
| Broward | D+17.0 | D+32.1 | 656,117 |
| Palm Beach | D+0.8 | D+12.3 | 564,170 |
| Hillsborough | R+3.1 | D+11.6 | 514,846 |
| Orange | D+13.6 | D+29.4 | 464,883 |
| Pinellas | R+5.2 | D+4.4 | 400,211 |
| Duval | R+1.5 | D+10.8 | 355,356 |
| Lee | R+28.4 | R+21.5 | 303,591 |
The biggest story is Miami-Dade, which in 2024 voted Republican for president for the first time since 1988 (R+11.4). It now stands at D+7.0. Osceola, with its large Puerto Rican community, went from R+1.5 to D+17.8. Palm Beach County, home to Mar-a-Lago, went from D+0.8 to D+12.3. These comparisons set a governor's race against a presidential race, so part of the shift reflects the candidates and lower midterm turnout. The direction is still consistent across the state.
The preliminary Florida exit poll points to the same voters. Trump's approval stands at 44 percent, disapproval at 55. Cuban American voters still lean Donalds 56 to 44, while Puerto Ricans back Jolly 68 to 31 and other Hispanic voters 60 to 40. For comparison, an American Electorate poll in 2024 had Trump winning Florida's Latinos 56 to 43. These are surveys, not counted votes, and the two polls use different methods.
Florida recount rules: 0.5 percent and 0.25 percent
If the first unofficial returns show a margin of 0.5 percent or less, Florida law requires a machine recount, ordered by the Secretary of State for a statewide race. At the current count, that line is about 40,996 votes. If the machine recount then shows 0.25 percent or less, about 20,498 votes, a manual recount of over- and undervotes follows across the state, unless there are too few of them to change the result.
The trailing candidate can waive the recount in writing. First unofficial returns are due by noon on the fourth day after the election, Saturday 7 November. After a recount, the second set is due by 3 p.m. on the ninth day, Thursday 12 November. Official county returns are due by noon on Monday 16 November, and the state Elections Canvassing Commission certifies on Tuesday 17 November.
Florida governor race and Bitcoin: what a Donalds win could mean
For crypto, the two candidates are not equally visible. Donalds, a Trump-backed US representative who raised more than $110 million, has made Bitcoin part of his profile. He told Bitcoin.com News in October: "we actually have proposals to create a strategic reserve in Florida." He has also backed the CLARITY Act and rejects a central bank digital currency. He did not lay out how a state would buy Bitcoin, so a reserve remains a proposal, and a legislature would have to pass it.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the party as Trump rose, built his campaign around property insurance and living costs. The result matters beyond Florida either way: the state is the third largest in the US by population, and a swing of this size could shape how both parties plan for 2028. The next market structure law is written in Congress, so for that question the Senate seat on the same ballot counts. Where it stands is in our CLARITY Act explainer.
On Polymarket, Donalds stood at 100.0 percent at 04:01 CET, with $6.4 million traded, up from about 79 percent in October. That shows what the market expects and is no forecast from us. If you trade around a night like this, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
Which midterm races are still open
Besides Florida, these are the closest statewide races with at least 20 percent counted at 04:01 CET. Early margins can still move a lot. Every call and the full Senate table are in our midterm election results live ticker, and what the outcome means for oil and gold is in our Iran analysis.
| Tennessee | Governor | Blackburn (Rep) | 0.8 pts | 68 % |
| New Hampshire | Governor | Ayotte (Rep) | 1.2 pts | 49 % |
| Ohio | Senate | Brown (Dem) | 1.3 pts | 70 % |
| Ohio | Governor | Acton (Dem) | 4.3 pts | 70 % |
| South Carolina | Governor | Wilson (Rep) | 4.5 pts | 87 % |
| Mississippi | Senate | Hyde-Smith (Rep) | 5.1 pts | 52 % |
| Vermont | Governor | Scott (Rep) | 5.7 pts | 79 % |
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