ETH Realized Profits Hit a 3-Week High as RSI Flatlines in The Dip

What the hourly chart shows about where momentum has gone

The ETH/USDT 1-hour chart shows Ethereum at $2,257 at the time of writing. Price sits below all three SMAs, with SMA50 closest overhead at $2,274, SMA100 at $2,302, and SMA200 at $2,311 forming a compressed resistance cluster above. All three are declining.

The RSI at 45.52 with a signal spread of 0.21 points is the tightest momentum reading on the current chart: it does not describe a market moving in either direction, it describes a market where three opposing forces, distributing accumulators, absorbing spot buyers, and rebuilding leveraged shorts, have neutralized each other to a standstill. A spread of 0.21 points leaves no meaningful gap between RSI and signal, giving the indicator no directional lean in either direction. That indecision is the chart’s answer to the question of what comes next: it does not know yet, and neither does the market.

Why realized profits are rising while price falls

Santiment’s network data shows Ethereum registered $74.58M in realized profits, the highest single reading in three weeks, during the same period that price dropped approximately 5.5% over three days. The apparent contradiction resolves when the cost basis of the sellers is considered.

A realized profit spike of $74.58M during a 5.5% price decline is not a contradiction: it is a precise description of who is selling, specifically holders who accumulated below $2,000 in February and March and are still in profit at $2,257, meaning the current sell-off is being driven by people who are right, not people who are panicking. Ethereum traded below $2,000 through much of February and March during a period of macro uncertainty and war fears. Wallets that accumulated during those months have a cost basis low enough that $2,257 still represents a meaningful gain. Those holders are distributing into the dip, not because they fear further decline, but because the price is still high enough relative to their entry to justify taking profit.

Santiment’s reading of the compression near $2,241 on the 4-hour chart confirms the distribution is active. Their recommendation is direct: lean cautious, wait for deeper realized losses to appear as the bottoming signal, and avoid aggressive positioning until the distribution phase shows clear signs of ending.

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What Binance derivatives show about who is building positions

Binance cumulative net taker volume peaked at approximately $4.03 billion on May 6 and has since fallen to approximately $1.9 billion, a decline of more than 50% in eight days, according to Amr Taha’s CryptoQuant analysis. Simultaneously, Binance open interest has risen from approximately $2.6 billion on May 11 to approximately $2.8 billion by May 14.

When CVD falls 50% while open interest rises, the leverage being added to the market is not coming from aggressive buyers: it is coming from traders positioning for the distribution to continue, and the liquidation clusters above price that Amr Taha identifies are the mechanism that would reverse the setup sharply if the distribution ends before the shorts expect it to. The heatmap shows liquidity clusters above price are larger than those below, meaning a move upward would trigger a cascade of short liquidations that could accelerate price beyond what the underlying spot buying would justify.

PelinayPA’s exchange netflow analysis adds the fourth layer: consecutive sharp positive spikes in ETH flowing to Binance are the supply-side confirmation of the distribution. The detail PelinayPA isolates is that price has not collapsed sharply despite the inflows, which suggests spot buyers are present and absorbing a portion of the supply. Without that absorption, the realized profit distribution plus the leveraged shorts would have pushed price lower more aggressively than the 5.5% decline observed.

What the four signals describe together

The distribution-and-absorption standoff is the structure all four sources are describing simultaneously. Santiment identifies the sellers and their motivation. Amr Taha identifies the leveraged positioning being built on top of that selling. PelinayPA identifies the spot buyers partially absorbing the supply. The hourly chart summarizes all three in a single RSI reading of 45.52 with a 0.21 spread: the forces are balanced, and the balance is the risk.

A sustained hourly close above the SMA50 at $2,274, with RSI crossing above 50 and holding, combined with Santiment’s network realized profit metric shifting toward deeper realized losses on consecutive days, would confirm the bullish case: deeper losses signal that profitable cost-basis sellers have exhausted their supply and the remaining sellers are capitulating rather than distributing, which historically precedes a genuine price floor.

A sustained hourly close below $2,241, the compression level Santiment identifies as the distribution zone, with OI continuing to expand and CVD falling below $1.5B, would indicate the leveraged shorts and distributing sellers are overwhelming the spot buyers and the next leg lower is beginning rather than a consolidation before recovery.

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