The token is trading just above $0.80, far from its $3.10 all-time high, and market sentiment has slid to its weakest point in nearly half a year.
Sentiment Split Between Retail and Large Holders
Smaller investors appear to be capitulating. Trading volumes have thinned, falling about 30% in a week to $850 million, while retail chatter has turned sour. Yet blockchain data paints a very different picture among whales, who have used the recent pullback to accumulate. Analysts note that this divergence — retail exiting while larger players buy — often sets the stage for countertrend rallies.
Network Fundamentals Show Strength
On-chain activity suggests the Cardano network itself is healthy. In the past week, transaction volumes surpassed $5 billion, ranking among its busiest periods of 2025. Open interest in ADA futures and a rise in active wallets also point toward deeper liquidity, even as the spot market drifts. For many traders, the $1 mark remains the immediate level to watch, with a breakout there potentially changing the narrative.
Audit Puts Old Allegations to Rest
Away from the charts, Cardano’s ecosystem scored a win. A forensic audit into its early voucher distribution — the mechanism that allocated ADA before its 2017 launch — concluded there was no evidence of fraud or manipulation. The 128-page report, conducted by McDermott Will & Schulte with BDO, confirmed that more than 99% of vouchers were redeemed properly. The remainder was legally transferred to a Cayman-based foundation tasked with community governance and development.
The review also dismissed claims that founder Charles Hoskinson misused a “genesis key” during a 2021 hard fork. Investigators found no irregularities in that process, easing concerns that had hung over the project earlier this year.
Outlook for ADA
Cardano remains caught between bearish retail psychology and bullish whale behavior. If network strength continues and ETF-driven optimism in the broader market lifts altcoins, ADA could push back toward $1. But without renewed buying support, the risk of further stagnation remains high.
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