Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Can $80,000 Hold Before Wednesday’s Fed Decision?

TLDR

Bitcoin traded near $80,400 on Monday after dipping to about $79,300 during the Asian morning. Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether. The Fed decides on rates Wednesday, with a 90% chance of no change, per CME FedWatch. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110 million on October 26, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Hilbert Group’s Jesse Marre named $75,500 as the key level to watch.

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Bitcoin steadied near $80,400 on Monday, little changed since midnight UTC. It dipped to around $79,300 during the Asian morning before recovering. Ether fell 0.2%, and the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The tone was set over the weekend. Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, citing macro and geopolitical risk.

Bitcoin slid about $2,000 over the weekend as technology stocks declined. Investing.com reported it was down 0.3% at $80,077.7 by 17:34 ET.

Oil and the Fed

Oil eased from six-month highs after reports of more talks between Middle Eastern powers and Iran. U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel, while Brent slipped to around $110.

Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday. President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day, though he kept the option open.

S&P 500 futures rose about 0.3% after Friday’s selloff in U.S. stocks. Crypto markets stayed cautious.

The Federal Reserve raised rates in September and decides again on Wednesday. CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 90% chance of no change. It also shows about an 80% chance of another hike in December.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also meet this week. All three are expected to hold rates but sound hawkish because of sticky inflation and energy risks.

Jesse Marre, a Senior Portfolio Manager at Hilbert Group, pointed to tight liquidity. He said the firm’s global liquidity index sits at 3.06 and velocity has turned negative, which matches Bitcoin’s five straight red daily candles last week.

Marre said $75,500 is the level that matters. A break below it would undo the base built since the summer lows, he said.

Bitcoin is near the bottom of an $80,000 to $87,000 range set over the past month. Few positive triggers have appeared for crypto buyers.

Santiment pointed to a drop in wallet count. The firm said Bitcoin has lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, bringing the total to about 59.95 million.

🚨 Bitcoin’s Falling Wallet Count May Signal A Bottom

😤 Bitcoin has lost roughly 30K non-empty wallets since October 16th, bringing the total back down near 59.95M. This may sound alarming, but it doesn’t necessarily signal declining utility. After weeks of stagnant $BTC price… pic.twitter.com/vI2kJHhGEf

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) October 26, 2026

Santiment said smaller holders appear to be losing patience after weeks of flat price action. It argued that retail exits have historically been more constructive for price than a rush of new buyers.

The firm called $80,000 the immediate battleground. Holding that level and reclaiming about $82,500 would strengthen the bottom signal, while a sustained break below $79,000 would delay it.

ETF flows are also in focus. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $138 million of outflows on Friday, taking the two-day exit to $772 million, according to Farside Investors.

Bitcoin ETFs Draw $110 Million as Ether Funds Shed $88.6 Million

According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26, entirely driven by BlackRock's IBIT, bringing its cumulative net inflows to $66.24 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw… pic.twitter.com/564kTDdptz

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 27, 2026

Wu Blockchain, citing SoSoValue, reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26. BlackRock’s IBIT drove all of it, lifting its cumulative net inflows to $66.24 billion. Ether funds shed $88.6 million that day.

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