Any Iran Deal Will Fail Without a Two-State Solution  

The first paragraph of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Iranian government and the Donald Trump administration declares “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations” in Lebanon, foresees a “final deal” that confirms “the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” 

This was strange because the United States was not fighting a war in Lebanon. It is Israel that has been conducting military operations in Lebanon against Iran’s Shia Islamist proxy, Hezbollah. But Israel is not a party to the Memorandum of Understanding. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, upon its signing, coolly, “We have our own interests.” 

In fact, ever since April, when Trump first announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel has continued attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Memorandum of Understanding, signed on June 17, was supposed to open the Strait of Hormuz; the fifth paragraph assures, “the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa.” But by June 20, Iran announced it had re-closed the Strait because of the “blatant breach of the first clause of the memorandum of understanding.” 

Instead of admitting the Memorandum of Understanding has failed to fulfill its limited objective—re-opening the Strait as talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program continue—President Donald Trump is telling everyone to join him in Fantasy Land. On Sunday, he claimed on his social media website, “While a trickle of ships has been getting through with U.S help close to Oman’s shoreline, that’s a far cry from the Strait truly being open. As Ian Ralby, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for Maritime Security, told CBC News, “‘Open’ to the U.S. seems to mean something different than it does the shipping industry, which, I think, largely feels that it remains closed.” Meanwhile, Trump is giving Iran more goodies—ending sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, which was supposed to be a reward for reopening the Strait.  

Trump, in his insatiable quest for a Nobel Peace Prize, is constantly looking for ribbon-cutting photo opportunities on the diplomatic stage. As we have learned, he’s even willing to start a war just to take credit for the peace. But what he is not willing to do is the painstaking diplomacy required to resolve decades-old disagreements to ensure any peace agreement endures beyond the handshakes. 

As anyone who has actually conducted Middle East diplomacy can tell you, bridging the gulfs between Israelis, Arabs, and Iranians has long been a high-risk, low-reward endeavor. Disputes run deep, and deals usually disintegrate. For example, Bill Clinton spent two terms working with Israelis and Palestinians to try to forge a two-state solution. He secured the preliminary Oslo Accords in his first term only to come up short for a final agreement at the Camp David Summit during the summer of his last year in office. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak coughed up major concessions under massive pressure from Clinton, but Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat proved unwilling to accept. In Clinton’s last week in office, Arafat privately told Clinton he was “a great man,” and Clinton shot back, “The hell I am. I’m a colossal failure, and you made me one.” Trump would never walk on such a diplomatic high-wire and risk a devastating fall. That’s why Vice President JD Vance is taking the lead on talks with Iran. “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” blithely admitted Trump, “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.” 

Barack Obama had the misfortune of serving as president alongside an Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, who was completely uninterested in a two-state solution. But in his second term, after years of difficult diplomacy, Obama achieved a diplomatic breakthrough. Working with several European nations and Russia, Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry successfully negotiated a program to contain Iran’s nuclear program. However, Netanyahu was not on board, seeing Iran’s regime as an existential threat to destroy, not to bargain with. He brazenly came to the U.S. Congress to trash Obama’s deal, hardening Republican opposition and setting the stage for Trump to abandon it in 2018. 

Trump, instead of his claims to be the ultimate peacemaker, gave Netanyahu what he long craved: a military operation intended to overthrow the Iranian government. According to the Jerusalem Post, “in many ways, the US was the originator of the idea of toppling the Islamic regime by using the Kurds to initiate an internal ground thrust” and “Israel was prepared to provide the Kurds not only with a no-fly zone, but with continuous aerial firepower.”  

But while Operation Epic Fury went forward, including the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and other top government officials, the plan to fully topple the regime was mysteriously—and probably wisely—shelved. “Even within Israel, some officials doubted that such an operation would work,” noted the Jerusalem Post.  

The plan included an additional, fantastical layer: installing as Iran’s new leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president and once-provocative face of Iran’s nuclear program, but who has been under house arrest after accusing the current regime of corruption. The New York Times reported last month that Ahmadinejad was “injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him” and “after the near miss, he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.” 

 “There is a debate regarding whether US President Donald Trump was convinced to veto the operation by some of his own top officials, or by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” reports the Jerusalem Post, “Israeli sources have accused American officials within the White House—many point to US Vice President JD Vance … of leaking the plan to Erdogan to help the Turkish president get to Trump in time to stop the operation before it could be rolled out.” 

When the bombing and the assassinations weren’t enough to trigger an overthrow, Trump reset the bar for success at containing Iran’s nuclear program, driving a wedge between himself and Netanyahu. While Trump has ended Operation Epic Fury, he has done nothing to resolve any underlying agreements, leaving any attempt at a broader peace agreement with Iran at the mercy of Israel’s recalcitrance.  

The broader lesson to draw from the failures of Operation Epic Fury and the Memorandum of Understanding is that there are no shortcuts to Middle East peace that bypass a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians, as difficult as that task remains. 

Yet that is not the lesson the current Israeli government is drawing. This month, Israel installed a new intelligence agency chief who, according to the Jerusalem Post, is just as committed as his predecessor to developing a plan to overthrow the Iranian government. 

A revitalized two-state peace process requires willing partners, and the first step is a change in the Israeli government, which will require a dramatic change in attitude from the Israeli electorate. While Netanyahu may lose power in the next parliamentary election slated for this year, it is not at all clear yet that a successor government would publicly state support for a two-state peace process. However, constructive and thoughtful American pressure may help, as it did during Bill Clinton’s tenure, when Israel moved a long way towards a comprehensive resolution. 

Trump’s ribbon-cutting impulses in theory could push Israel in the right direction, but they are only impulses. He knows how to scold, as he did last week when he chastised Israel’s military operations in Lebanon—said Trump, “You don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you’re looking for somebody.” But Trump is too impulsive and too unprincipled to apply consistently effective pressure, which is why his demands are often ignored by not only Israel but also Iran, Ukraine, and Russia.  

Diplomacy is hard, and Middle Eastern diplomacy is the hardest of all. It requires principle, patience, willingness to sacrifice personal political capital, and a basic faith in humanity, none of which can be expected of Trump or Netanyahu. But the rest of us, in America and Israel, must try to learn the correct lessons from Trump and Netanyahu’s shared debacle if we are ever to achieve peace. 

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